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Analyzing the effect of macroeconomic toward LQ45 index : time series analysis from 2013-2022

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2025CS289CS/289IPMI KalibataAvailable

Publisher :Institut IPMI , 2024

This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic variables-namely the Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA), exchange rate (USD/IDR), bank Indonesia (BI) rate, and gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth-on the LQ45 index in Indonesia, utilizing weekly data from 2013 to 2022. Through time series analysis, the research explores both the individual effects of these variables and the moderating influence of the BI rate on the relationship between the exchange rate and the LQ45 index. The findings indicate that the DJIA, exchange rate, and BI rate are significant determinants of the LQ45 index, with the DJIA showing a strong positive influence, consistent with the theory that U.S. market performance significantly impacts emerging markets. The exchange rate demonstrated a negative effect, reflecting the adverse impact on Rupiah appreciation on the export-driven Indonesian economy. The BI rate, while negatively correlated with the LQ45 index, showed an intensified effect when considered in conjunction with the exchange rate, highlighting the critical role of monetary policy in shaping stock market performance. However, GDP growth, although initially significant, lost its impact when the moderating variable was introduced, suggesting that its influence on the stock market is more complex and potentially overshadowed by other macroeconomic factors. This research contributes to the understanding of how global and domestic economic indicators influence stock market dynamics in Indonesia, offering valuable insights for investors and policymakers. The study underscores the importance of considering the interplay between exchange rates and monetary policy, particularly in the context of an interconnected global financial system.

Series Title
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Call Number
CS/289
Publisher Place Jakarta Selatan
Collation
75p: ill; 30cm
Language
English
ISBN/ISSN
-
Classification
CS/289
Media Type
-
Carrier Type
-
Edition
-
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Content Type
text

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