The coal mining industry has experienced substantial disruptions due to geopolitical
events, most notably the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which has
significantly impacted global energy markets. Previous studies revealed diverse
findings regarding the influence of fundamental factors on stock returns across
industries. This study aims to examine the impact of fundamental factors and the
moderating role of the Russia-Ukraine War on stock returns for coal producers
listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange and Australia Stock Exchange from 2019
to 2023.The analysis considers key independent variables such as coal price,
exchange rate, market return, return on equity (ROE), current ratio (CR), total asset
turnover (TATO), debt-to-equity ratio (DER), and earning yield (EY). The Russia-
Ukraine War serves as a moderating variable, while stock return is the dependent
variable. Utilizing the panel data regression model, the study provides evaluation
of financial and stock performance between the top five coal producer companies
in Indonesia and Australia comparing before and during the war happen. The
findings indicate that coal price and exchange rate positively and significantly affect
stock returns, with fluctuation of the coal price being the most influential factor.
However, market return, ROE, and several financial ratios (TATO and DER) failed
to exhibit significant relationships with stock returns, but CR and EY showed
marginally significant positive effects. The Russia-Ukraine War was incorporated
as a moderating variable but did not significantly moderate the effects of most
independent variables, except for the exchange rate, which showed significant
negative moderation. This study highlights the role of coal prices and market
conditions in driving the stock performance while emphasizing the impact of
geopolitical conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine War. It underscores the importance
of considering both fundamental financial factors and external macroeconomic
disruptions when analyzing stock returns in the coal sector. These insights provide
valuable guidance for investors and policymakers in managing risks and optimizing
returns in volatile environments.