This study examines the performance of property companies in Indonesia by analyzing the influence of leverage, mortgage rate, and general elections as explanatory variables, with company size incorporated as a moderating factor, during the period 2013–2023 which covers three election cycles and various changes in mortgage policy. Using Tobin’s Q as a market-based indicator of firm performance, panel data regression with a fixed effect model was employed to test the proposed hypotheses. The results demonstrate that leverage consistently
enhances firm value, reflecting the positive market perception of debt utilization as a signal of efficiency and managerial discipline. By contrast, mortgage rate yields inconsistent results, appearing significant in the baseline model but losing explanatory power when the moderating variable is included, while general elections are found to have no significant effect on firm value, indicating that
political cycles are anticipated by the market and do not materially disrupt valuation. More importantly, firm size exerts a significant negative direct effect on Tobin’s Q and diminishes the positive contribution of leverage, thereby challenging the conventional view that larger firms automatically enjoy superior performance, while its moderating role on mortgage rate and elections is not supported. These
findings collectively underscore the central importance of financial structure in shaping market valuation in the property sector, while also highlighting that scale without efficiency may erode shareholder value. The study contributes to the existing literature by providing long-term evidence from Indonesia, a context often underrepresented in prior research, and offers practical implications for managers to pursue prudent debt strategies, for investors to carefully evaluate firm size as a performance indicator, and for governments to ensure consistent mortgage policies and transparent election processes in order to sustain confidence and stability in the
property market.