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DEVELOPMENT OF A LIFE CYCLE CARBON NEUTRAL WASTE-TO-STEAM PROJECT USING HEAT FROM MUNICIPAL WASTE INCINERATION IN BANTEN PROVINCE

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IPMI Kalibata (General) 912
2026912
Available

Publisher :Institut Pengembangan Manajemen Indonesia (IPMI) , 2026

Banten Province is one of Indonesia\\\'s key industrial and logistics hubs, and its rapid economic and population growth has increased municipal solid waste (MSW) generation, placing growing pressure on a waste management system that still relies mainly on landfills. At the same time, industries in the Serang–Cilegon corridor depend heavily on fossil fuels, particularly coal, to produce process steam. A Waste-to-Steam (WtS) project that recovers heat from municipal waste incineration offers a potential solution to both challenges. Although a Pre-Feasibility Study (Pre-FS) has established the project\\\'s technical foundation, this basis has not yet been translated into a structured business model, financing strategy, or investment-ready case.\\r\\nThis study develops the business, financial, and strategic framework needed to advance a WtS project in Banten Province, including an assessment of its Life Cycle Carbon Neutral (LCCN) potential. It employs an applied, mixed-method research design based primarily on secondary data from the Pre-FS, government reports, and industry sources. The strategic assessment applies PESTEL, VRIO, Porter\\\'s Five Forces, SWOT, and TOWS analyses. The financial assessment uses a capital budgeting model incorporating Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR), and free cash flow analysis. A scenario-based sensitivity analysis evaluates the financial implications of pessimistic, moderate (base), and optimistic engineering assumptions, complemented by regulatory, market, and Public–Private Partnership (PPP) assessments.\\r\\nThe results indicate that the proposed 600-tonnes-per-day plant is technically feasible at a preliminary level, supported by approximately 2,048 tonnes per day of MSW generated in Serang City, Serang Regency, and Cilegon City, as well as nearby industrial steam demand. Under the base scenario, the project achieves a Project IRR of 10.29% and a positive Project NPV of approximately IDR 53,003 million. However, the Equity IRR of 7.12% and negative Equity NPV of approximately IDR 230,683 million indicate that the current financing structure is not yet sufficiently attractive to equity investors. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates substantial exposure to operating performance: under the pessimistic scenario, Project IRR falls to 3.15%, and Project NPV declines to negative IDR 362,921 million, while Equity IRR decreases to -2.39% and average DSCR falls to 0.76x. Conversely, the optimistic scenario yields a Project IRR of 19.74%, a Project NPV of IDR 771,668 million, and an Equity IRR of 20.71%, with average DSCR improving to 2.42x. These differences reflect the influence of waste throughput, operating hours, waste lower heating value, boiler efficiency, and steam sales volume on financial performance. A Build–Operate–Transfer (BOT) PPP scheme is recommended, supported by reliable waste-supply agreements, secure tipping-fee and steam-payment mechanisms, and potential government support through instruments such as Viability Gap Funding (VGF) or Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) support, subject to eligibility and availability. The LCCN component is not yet suitable for immediate implementation because Indonesia\\\'s hydrogen ecosystem remains under development. The study concludes that a comprehensive feasibility study, including Front-End Engineering Design (FEED), detailed financial sensitivity testing, and validation of waste supply, steam offtake, and financing assumptions, is required before the project proceeds to investment.

Series Title
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Call Number
912
Publisher Place Jakarta
Collation
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Language
Indonesia
ISBN/ISSN
-
Classification
912
Media Type
unmediated
Carrier Type
volume
Edition
-
Subject(s)
-
Specific Info
-
Statement
Content Type
text

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